Those who read my columns know my taste for history. I think there is much to learn including the history of warfare: those times when people are struggling to survive and where energies are collected in a single goal. This does not prevent most wars end with a winner and a loser. The rhetoric and the resolution does not prevent defeat.
There is a special moment when victory (or loss) appears: what I call the "momentum." For example, during World War II, when Allied bombing did more damage in Germany and is accompanied by loss of aircraft and airmen increasingly limited. This was not a foregone conclusion.
Currently, the western states live their own "momentum" economy. Turning is near. The financial collapse is underway and it is unclear what can stop it. The only open question is the order of the fallen in the trap: probably small before the big fall is the premium size.
Large companies seem in perfect health: they reacted strongly by slashing their workforce and cutting spending. Only downside at the moment, consumption remains sluggish. Unemployed people making poor consumers.
While life continues on credit, the system is held and the question does not arise: as told bankers on Wall Street, we must continue to dance as the orchestra cheek. But everything changes when the credit stops, is that China decides to stop lending or a major credit rating agencies gave the signal.
The financial collapse of Western states lead to a paradigm shift: just as the triumph of communism led to burst her disappearance, I do not think that things are still there. States engaged in growing difficulties with their population once unable to continue their lives on credit (mass unemployment, insecurity, poverty or misery) take drastic measures to repatriate wealth and save what can be.
Who will pay this upheaval: the shareholders and private companies. Those who oppose it will pay with their lives (in the example of what is happening in Russia today. It is extremely easy for a state that has by definition of the kingly power to arrest troublemakers. Those who play the Thurs will open their new rent-seeking).
That day, governments will implement policies and means of survival which will break the system: it is an immutable law of nature: no body accepts his death without a fight, and fight in this State - who make the law among them - will necessarily have the last word.
My predictions: The End of Globalization, the return of borders, the end of the euro, stopping the free trade and authoritarian regimes and closed in some of the major Western countries.
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