Monday, September 6, 2010

What To Put Around A Wishing Well

Thanks to the Belgians!

Change Programme and up to the news: I'll come back to my readings of exciting vacation.

few months ago, I thanked our Greek friends for having accepted to be the first guinea pigs of the laboratory "euro", these little creatures to life sad and yet so essential (pardon the SPA). In the series, how do we do when we can no longer borrow on the markets? Greeks have opened the way: we call for help and its neighbors is greatly reduced public spending. Remains to be seen whether the economy rebounds: reply within 1 year.

Our Belgian friends, closer us, we now offer a second laboratory experiment which is not bad either: the disappearance of a country! Oh yes, the agony will be long and justify the usual word for "long illness" not to say that it was incurable ...

Previously, a country characterized by a first border and a currency. Since the euro and the Schengen agreement, which is not the government becomes the first symbol? However, Belgium can not even form a: if indeed it happens - by a miracle - it is doubtful that it resists the first crisis came, and so yes Belgium and now seems to longer really a country under this criterion.

note in passing that, economically, with a government weakened or absent for years, it does not seem to do less well than we do. What will become of his debt? The Flemings and Walloons they decide to create a country like the Czechs and Slovaks, or they prefer to watch, despite their differences on the side of their respective neighboring large (and somehow return to a not so distant past) ?

How is it that Belgium still happens, it seems - without too much difficulty in obtaining financing? Is this a sign that markets do not yet believe in the division or they think it will not affect the repayment ?

how the debt will be divided between the two parties in the event of division? The bankers still have good advice ahead of them. What will become of the many expatriate French tax to the delight of the city of Brussels?

Our big dreams will they forget us - if the opportunity presents itself - the annexation of Wallonia would result in a ball over the feet already weakened the French economy?

Agony, agony .... it can last. It may not happen for a while. Belgium and French debt the same fight: Can we consider an insoluble problem is not a problem if we have eternity ahead?


NB: I do not really understand the arguments of Paul Krugman on the benefits of debt: he explains that the hyper-indebtedness of the Second World War has had a beneficial effect on growth of the postwar period and that therefore we should not fear a new mega stimulus plan today. Yes, but where are the hundreds of millions of homes to rebuild Europe, Russia and Asia in the post-war? The famous "Germany Year Zero Rossellini. Not to mention the conversion of the U.S. economy from civil to military and vice versa, which should represent the same level of creative destruction. Really, I do not see Hyper-current debt of U.S. have the same training effect in 1945.

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