No, I do not mean that we spend our vacation. Yet it is a subject full of interest. To this question, it seems that the answer is unsurprisingly a little more in France and a little less abroad. Obviously, this is far less ... although, it depends for whom. For Breton, everything is far away (but it can stay in Britain, ideally in his corner. No kidding, I like the UK, except that it rains a little too often for my taste).
No, I mean, where does the world and our beautiful country?
Demographically, to the continued growth of world population, albeit at a slightly reduced. But is not this global indicator is relevant, but rather the much more difficult to estimate the population living in a Western way of life because it is the growth of this segment of the population that leads us straight to the shortage of resources in the next 20 years. And that growth appears exponential. To verify that I will return to Chennai (formerly Madras) in 1 or 2 years and compare with what I saw there are 3 or 4 years. I am sure I will not recognize the city.
In this context, concerns about overheating in China are of interest to scholars (although the markets expect so they often fall before it happens) but we are losing sight of the essential: the dynamics of those "new" is not ready to stop or even slow down over the medium term. The base increasing every year, it will come when it will be enough to pull itself to global growth.
And France? It is clearly part clan maimed and this allows us to hear crowing quite incredible like: "We lost two times fewer industrial jobs than our neighbors in 2009 ....". Really? 250 000, it's still not bad. Knowing the extreme caution with which companies recruit in France, we say that we are not ready to return.
So where Will we? oh, I'm not a mind reader and there are probably better things to do in the month of August. Then remain very general, with one stone 2 bells: take the least risk of error and go faster.
To borrow a metaphor current, a good way to predict our destination is to look where you come and imagine the possible changes of direction.
recent years we have known (outside of the crisis of 2009) grew poorly supported by consumer spending and increased government spending. For the reasons that everyone knows these two engines are inoperative. We must find other, the risk of crashing (the advantage is with an airplane that he must be content with his starting equipment).
Yes, but which ones? And how the light? It is understandable that if there was in France an early start in thinking and implementation, it is not and we would debate. Really, it is exactly as in 40: convinced of our "disability" and meanwhile I do not know what miracle. We know how it was done.
So: this time? Imagine: a degradation of our debt in 5 years (or sooner?), Weighing the interests and stifling the budget requires a drastic increase in taxes in 10 years resulting in a drop in activity and asset values, the first - real estate. With what consequences? not easy to imagine, but certainly a worsening housing shortages and therefore the social crisis. The Brazilians have found the answer (separate development and military security for the upper classes). we have 20 years to find ours.
comment from one of my readers that I saw recently: "your blog is not bad, but you would not be a bit revolutionary?" No, I do not think so. Interest and is not to predict. A revolutionary is someone who acts. I prefer to chronicle, it enough for me! I do not want the revolution either, but I do not see why I put on rose-colored glasses to cheer me up.
Next topic of my column: Hitler - about detestable course (I reply to a second reader: "Say, you would not be a fan, by chance, ty for all interested? NO, but it is one of the few men who marked the 20th century ... And it was an excellent indicator of our cowardice French). Two tests: 1) The Third Reich he would have won WWII? 2) What was the attitude of Hitler compared to Germans during the war. Exciting, no? And you will see, relying on serious books I give answers that are not agreed.
Happy holidays!
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