Plan aid to Greece being concocted by the IMF, the ECB and Europe should provide substantial funding in exchange for a strengthening of austerity measures. Nobody can guarantee today that it will suffice to save Greece and extinguish the fire that starts on country risk in Europe.
I already had the opportunity to thank - without malice or irony - our Greek friends for their contribution to our rescue many involuntary. I can do it again because if this plan works, it will be difficult not to be thrust upon us in the years to come, and if it does not work we can always try to find another solution.
But doing a bit of foresight: what are the chances of success are there alternative? All unknown to the current rescue plan is the deflation inevitable force that will move in Greece. European countries (Belgium, Holland, Germany or Scandinavia) or not (Canada, Quebec ...) who have successfully completed the rehabilitation of public finances had assets that may lack in Greece. I fear that for a country with as small an economy centered on tourism and highly parallel, the remedy is not sufficient: the force of depression may ultimately annihilate conservation efforts. Balance in one year.
Incidentally, I disagree with the negative comments about the attitude of the German Chancellor. It is in the predicament of a person who can not defend themselves even if it is satisfied to be right, because the victim of political correctness. All truths are not good to say! Of course, it is easy to lend political considerations (the next elections). I rather think it's impossible for someone who is not a German to understand this visceral fear of inflation, debt, the financial facility that led to Nazism and the 8 million German dead. Do not count Germany not to share our sense of compromise and hypocrisy very French! Those who hopes a less strong desire to take a reality. Angela Merkel will not change!
But back to the economy. The future is not written in advance, but why not think about the alternatives? The crisis was resolved 30 years in the blood, undesirable and unlikely today. The crisis in Japan 90 years has not settled. That leads to a solution but certainly politically incorrect that some economists are calling: let market forces take action and stop supporting the economy !
Obviously, this will seem absurd at first glance to many, and yet I really think this is the only solution. The massive drop in real estate and financial assets (stocks and bonds) that would result in a redistribution of the cards for young people and work to the detriment of capital and retirees, which is the only possible solution in the medium term.
The Japanese wanted at all costs save their banks and retired (for good reason, they have more children) and they chose the path of economic suicide (albeit delayed and softened up their standard of development ) but now inevitable.
Yes, another policy seems possible. It may also be expected to benefit from this crisis than forcing the Greek states to change economic policy. Imagine a CAC40 at 1000 points and in Paris in 1000 m2 € (I agree, only a "failure" can imagine that). But if it was the only solution to avoid the 40% rate of unemployment in the suburbs and the revolution?
Me, I'm fine.
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